Commercial Aviation Monitor

Aviation insights by Cirium Ascend Consultancy

The Commercial Aviation Monitor Leverages Cirium data and Ascend Consultancy analysis and insight, providing everything you need to know about the sector.

• Boeing’s delivery volume declined to 32 commercial aircraft in September (from 40 in August), amid the OEM’s ongoing machinists’ union strike which is impacting production. With Airbus shipments also flat in September, Cirium has again reduced its 2024 full-year delivery forecast by 7% to 1,155 commercial aircraft, 6% below the 2023 total.
• This month’s focus is on the China market, highlighting that delivery volumes of Airbus and Boeing aircraft to Chinse airlines are yet to recover to pre-Covid levels. The absence of 737 Max shipments (until 2024) a key contributor; Cirium data shows that annual deliveries as a share of fleet has declined to 3-4%, having previously exceeded 10% prior to 2020.
• In the leasing sector, China-based companies have been progressively increasing their share of country’s leased fleet over the last decade, rising from around 30% in 2014 to above 60% since 2021.
• Market Values and Lease Rates for single-aisles are now at record levels, but may start to plateau as the absolute numbers hit an “affordability ceiling” for airlines. Values and Lease Rates for new twin-aisles may also start to level-off soon, but used/older twin-aisle Values and Lease Rates are still trending upwards.

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