By Sara Dhariwal, Valuations Manager at Ascend by Cirium
This is the second update of known orders and commitments in the AAM space, in the wake of Cirium’s launch of such data into its Fleets Analyzer platform. (See the May update here). Following market feedback, the Cirium dataset has expanded to now also include Jaunt Air Mobility’s “Journey” and Volocopter’s “VoloConnect”.
Please see below for current data coverage, with the new additions highlighted.
| Market Grouping | Type |
| Business Electric – Multi Engine | Alice |
| Business Electric – Multi Engine | eFlyer 800 |
| Business Electric – Multi Engine | Electra eSTOL |
| Business Electric – Multi Engine | M200 |
| eVTOL – UAV/UAS | ALIA-250C |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Aero3 |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | ALIA-250 |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Archer eVTOL |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Butterfly |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Cora |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | EH216 |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Eve |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Journey |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | Lilium Jet |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | S4 |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | VoloCity |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | VoloConnect |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | VT-30 |
| eVTOL – Urbain Air Mobility (UAM) | VX4 |
| Regional Electric – Small | ERA |
| Regional Electric – Small | ES-19 |
As the market develops, there will no doubt be further market groupings and types included, as well as potentially unmanned aircraft.
The total commitments for the space, as reported in Fleets Analyzer on 30th June 2022 is at 5,781 orders which is a 24% increase on the reported numbers in May. It is apt to note that this may not be fully attributed to additional orders, but an evolving dataset at Cirium.
This report has divided the space up between eVTOLs and Regional Electric aircraft.
eVTOLs
The commitments by type for the eVTOL space can be seen in the table below.
The top two contenders remain the same as in May, with Embraer’s Eve / Air Mobility’s “Eve” at close to 40% share of the total order numbers in the space, with 17 customers, and Vertical Aerospace’s “VX4” at close to 30% share of the current orders, with six customers.
*Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer as at 30th June 2022.
There have been commitments placed from a total of 45 companies. Avolon continues to lead the way with its backing of the VX4, making up just over a 10% share of the total commitments recorded to date. American Airlines commitments for the VX4 type is just over 7% of the total. Bristow remain the only customer so far with stakes in multiple types.
The types with the most commitments so far, – Eve, Lilium Jet, and VX4 – are all configured for 4+1 seat capacity, which so far appear to be the most favorable seating configuration for the eVTOL sector with a total of five contenders.
| Type | Range (nm) | Payload (lbs) | # Motors |
| Archer | 52.1 | ~550 | 12 |
| Eve | 52 | 8 | |
| S4 | 130.3 | 800 | 6 |
| Lilium Jet | 161.9 | ~1100 | 36 |
| VX4 | 104 | 992 | 8 |
In the May update, we looked at the comparison between the most popular helicopter in the 4+1 and under seat category – the Robinson R44. The type has a share of almost 50% of the current fleet in the category. This is a good indication that the market is favourable towards this size, however, and at least in the short term, it is widely expected that the eVTOLs will break new markets as opposed to being a direct replacement opportunity for existing technology.
Probable usage areas include:
- Middle-mile logistics
- Surveillance
- Humanitarian aid
- Critical mission support
- Other areas which are likely not even considered yet. The unexpected way in which the mobile phone industry impacted the demand for traditional handheld cameras spring to mind. The impact of the world wide web on the post office services is another example.
Business/Regional Electric aircraft
In the Business/Regional Electric category, there are six main contenders with a combined total of just over 1,000 commitments to date.
Electra Aero, with the Electra eSTOL, has the majority share of the total commitments in this category at close to 30% in place with six companies, followed by the Heart Aerospace ES19 at just over 20% share with four companies, closely followed by the Aura Aero’s ERA at 20% with one company.
The Ascend by Cirum AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have so do not hesitate to contact us.
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