By: Mike Malik
Chief Marketing Officer, Cirium  

Mention “snowbirds” to a Floridian and most will think of Canadians. In South Florida, that long-standing seasonal migration is so familiar that some neighborhoods even bear French Canadian street names.

But economic headwinds and political uncertainty have begun to reshape one of the world’s busiest cross-border air markets. Canadian carriers, in particular, are adjusting their schedules — and Florida is feeling the impact. And, the bookings appear to be taking a hit.

U.S.–Canada: A Vital Transborder Corridor

The United States remains the top international destination for Canadian travelers, while Canada ranks just behind Mexico for U.S. outbound passengers, according to Cirium data. The transborder market connects nearly 190 city pairs, including high-frequency routes like Toronto to New York City, which alone sees roughly 4,000 daily seats.

Using Cirium’s Diio Snapshots tool, we reviewed airline schedule changes for April through June 2025. The analysis compares data as filed on January 31, 2025, with updated schedules from late March. And, using Cirium’s Diio Advance Bookings tool, we analyzed forward bookings — for which there are some very important caveats.

Scheduled Capacity Down Since January

Overall, carriers are offering 4.4% fewer seats between Canada and the U.S. for April–June 2025 than they were back in January. Canadian airlines, which operate the bulk of this capacity, have made steeper cuts — down 6.1% on average.

For example, in April alone, airlines initially scheduled 13,555 flights. That number has now dropped to 13,100 — a reduction of roughly 400 flights. Signs of this pullback first emerged in March and have since extended into the spring months.

April 2025 vs. April 2024

When comparing this April to the same month last year, scheduled capacity is generally lower. The Canadian dollar’s continued weakness and ongoing political tensions have likely played a role in these reductions.

Air Canada’s seats are down more than 9% year-over-year, with WestJet reducing capacity by nearly 5%. United, by contrast, is growing its presence in the market with an 8.5% increase in seats. Meanwhile, Porter Airlines, which has deployed its new Embraer E2-195 jets, is directing 23% of its available seat miles to U.S. destinations this April.

Airline	Apr-25	Apr-24	Diff	Percent Diff
Air Canada	623,461	686,644	-63,183	-9.20%
WestJet	244,032	255,989	-11,957	-4.67%
United Airlines	190,276	175,322	14,954	8.53%
Delta Air Lines	121,417	119,406	2,011	1.68%
Porter Airlines	119,292	83,736	35,556	42.46%
American Airlines	112,644	103,118	9,526	9.24%
Flair Airlines	40,446	63,049	-22,603	-35.85%
Alaska Airlines	32,092	29,517	2,575	8.72%
Air Transat	21,595	28,989	-7,394	-25.51%
JetBlue	4,770	4,860	-90	-1.85%

Florida: A Sharper Decline

Florida stands out. Traditionally a strong seasonal market for Canadian carriers — particularly in fall, winter, and spring — it’s now seeing significant pullbacks. Compared to January schedules, seat capacity for April through June is down more than 20% as of late March for destinations like Fort Lauderdale and Miami. The cuts are less severe in Orlando, but the overall trend points to caution among carriers.

Watching the Summer Booking Curve

When we talk about advance bookings data, it’s important to note that our insights come from online travel agencies—not direct airline bookings. And since most bookings still happen directly with the airlines, this means we’re looking at a sample, not the full picture. Some carriers don’t distribute through OTAs or GDS at all.

So while the data can point us in the right direction, it’s more directional than definitive.

We performed an analysis of bookings made between January and March 2025 for travel in April, May, and June, and compared them to the same period in 2024. The analysis focused on departures from Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary to key U.S. destinations—New York-area airports, Los Angeles, Chicago, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, and Denver. It’s not the full picture, of course. But on third-party channels, bookings are down by about 20.5%. Only the airlines have the full view of what the actual decline looks like.

Despite current reductions and potential reductions in bookings, the U.S. remains a critical market for both Canadian and U.S. airlines. Canadian carriers, in particular, depend on robust transborder demand — whether for business, family connections, or leisure. Airlines on both sides of the border will be closely monitoring booking trends as the summer season approaches.

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