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By David Griffin, Valuations Consultant, ISTAT appraiser at Ascend by Cirium
In April, Ascend by Cirium launched the Commercial Aircraft Market Sentiment Index. The Index is published monthly and tracks market sentiment and trends of values, lease rates through a survey of key market stakeholders, including lessors, banks, OEMs, part-out shops, airlines and brokers.
This month we return to looking at Market Values and now that we have our third set of market value data points we can start observing some meaningful trends of the evolution of sentiment in the commercial space.
We continue to use an NPS Index for the values trend – estimated as the number of respondents replying ’too high’ or ‘trending up’ minus those replying ‘too low’ or ‘trending down’, divided by the total sample response to that question. Scores in the 40% to -40% range broadly indicate stability, those below -40% can be considered to indicate a very strong negative trend in values and those above 40% indicate a strong positive trend.
An example from the below chart is on the 737 Max 8, where 26 respondents thought values are trending up while only five thought that they were trending down resulting in a NPS index of 40%, the remainder voted stable.
So how have new-build single aisle value trends fared over the past five months? As evidenced below, two have had positive increases in NPS – the A320-200neo and 737 Max 8, while both the A321-200neo and the A220-300 have seen a relative decrease in sentiment. However, as all four types have an NPS Index above zero this means that the market has an overall positive sentiment (i.e. more people think that values are improving than those who think they are not).
Although not shown in the above chart, the 737-800 (10-year-old vintage) has seen a similar increase in sentiment. In April it had a score of -26%, improving to -5% in June, before becoming positive in August with a score of +7%.
Looking at the stability metric, when compared to June it is evident that there is increased positivity in the market with four of the six single-aisle types achieving record “stable” votes since April. While a new-build A321-200neo has remained broadly unchanged, the new-build A320-200neo had a slight decrease but still 60% of participants see the values remaining stable.
As a consequence of capturing numerous data points for the 737NG and the Max we recently made positive adjustments to our Current Market Values with details from the CAMSI providing strong support to our analysis.
We are always looking for further respondents to reflect all aspects of the market, who can then benefit from receiving the full set of results. The CAMSI survey takes only 3 minutes to complete, yet provides respondents with the most comprehensive picture of the aircraft value market trends available. If you would like to participate, please contact david.griffin@cirium.com. Participants will receive a complete and detailed analysis of the survey.
