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Towards the end of the year, the advanced air mobility (AAM) market reflected the changing seasons with a gradual cooling, influenced by spiking interest rates and the rising cost of capital. Yet, in the face of these headwinds, the number of commitments recorded in Cirium’s database increased to over 14,815 as of 11 October 2024, with over 900 secured since our last update in July 2024.

eVTOLs – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

The eVTOL – UAM sector has generated the most activity in the market both in terms of the number of aircraft in development, and commitments received to date. Since the last update in July 2024, the sector has attracted 416 new order commitments. The space now has a total of slightly over 11,000 order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer. Eve Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to lead the sector with 2,900 and 1,550 commitments respectively.

The global market for eVTOLs shows a varied regional distribution, with strong order commitments in North America (4,686), Asia-Pacific (3,903) and Europe (1,938), driven by differing levels of technological advancement, regulatory backing and investment interest.

Certification issues delay demonstration

There have been a number of exciting announcements where we hoped to see the AAM sector take off. One such instance was the Paris Olympics, where Volocopter intended to operate an air taxi service, but this did not happen due to delays in certification of the aircraft’s engines.

Another much anticipated event is the 2025 World Expo in Osaka, where there were plans to operate flying taxis.

However, all four operators (Japan Airlines, ANA Holdings, Marubeni and SkyDrive) have cancelled these plans due to safety certification delays, and the operators are still planning to conduct demonstration flights without passengers.

So what are the different aspects that need certification?

Governing bodies like EASA, CAA and FAA collaborate with aircraft manufacturers to develop a set of regulations that guarantee the safety and airworthiness of an aircraft throughout its design, production, and modification phases. Manufacturers are required to carry out extensive testing programmes to demonstrate compliance with these standards.

eVTOLs are a new type of aircraft with technologies and concepts that have never been certificated before. As such, authorities are collaborating with manufacturers to write the rulebook on eVTOL certification.

According to David Solar, head of general aviation and vertical take-off and landing at EASA, the certification process for an eVTOL propeller differs from that of a conventional aircraft.

The design of the propeller is tailored to the specific aircraft configuration, considering factors such as the aircraft’s objectives and the transition from vertical to horizontal flight.

Manufacturers must evaluate loading conditions, perform fatigue tests, and demonstrate that the propeller is suitable for flight.

In addition, the different flight paths of cargo and passenger aircraft could result in different certification requirements. Cargo aircraft operating outside of cities can have lower security standards, but more stringent requirements could apply to passenger aircraft and cargo operations over congested areas.

Another aspect to certify is the use of modern electric powertrains. One major challenge is balancing battery energy density with payload capacity. The battery’s weight affects the propulsion required to keep the aircraft airborne, ultimately impacting range performance. Advances in battery weight-to-power ratio and aerodynamic efficiency are crucial for improving eVTOL performance.

Last but not least are certification of the infrastructure needed to support the operation of these aircraft such as the airspace and vertiports. With vertiports being scattered around the city, the impact of noise could be detrimental. As for airspace, these aircraft would utilise low attitude airspace which is already quite congested in certain cities with general aviation aircraft. Ensuring proper airspace management and separation could be a challenge.

Rolls-Royce to divest electric engine division

Engines for eVTOLs will be provided by specialist engine manufacturers rather than the aircraft OEM, following the same model as traditional aircraft designs. In the market, there are several electric engine suppliers, including both traditional engine OEMs and new entrants.

Towards the end of 2023, Rolls-Royce, a high-profile engine OEM, announced that it was open to offers from prospective buyers for its Electrical engine division.

However, at the end of September 2024, Rolls-Royce made an announcement stating that it had elected to shut down its electrical propulsion unit called Rolls-Royce Electrical. This decision came after failing to find a buyer for the business, according to Aviation Week.

As a result of this development, UK-based Vertical Aerospace’s VX4 is now left searching for alternative options since Rolls-Royce was its chosen engine partner. Despite this setback, Vertical Aerospace insists that they are still on track to meet the CAA certification timeline which has been revised from 2024 to either 2025 or 2026.

According to Aerospace Global News reports, Rolls-Royce’s decision to divest from its electrical propulsion unit is “driven by their need to readdress their balance sheet and focus on investments with short- and medium-term returns”. This suggests that Rolls-Royce anticipates any returns in the electric space will be a long-term prospect, which begs questions such as –

• Will there be a domino effect, with more similar announcements of divestment or changes in strategy, from other major players within the industry? Such announcements could have cascading effects on the overall landscape of electric aviation, including the eVTOL sector.
• Will the announcement affect investor confidence in the electric aviation industry? Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in the growth and development of emerging industries, and any shifts in sentiment may have repercussions on funding and future investments.
• Will this divestment announcement alter the competitive dynamics within the eVTOL industry? It could create gaps or opportunities that other companies or new entrants may seek to fill. New partnerships or collaborations could also emerge as companies reevaluate their strategies and seek alternative solutions.

Time will be the ultimate judge of how sentiments regarding this divestment will resonate across the eVTOL industry.  

Business electric – multi-engine

In the business electric sector, Electra’s eSTOL has received almost 1,350 order commitments, including from notable clients like the helicopter lessor Bristow Group. However, the identities of the majority of these order commitments remain undisclosed. Aura Aero’s ERA holds second place with 570 order commitments. Heart Aerospace’s ES-30 follows in third place with over 530 order commitments after the ES-19 programme was cancelled and switched to the ES-30.

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us.

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