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Consolidation cold spell
Lessor consolidation has been a hot topic in recent years, but analysis of fleet data shows that the trend is nearly frozen, writes Thomas Kaplan, Senior Valuations Consultant at Cirium Ascend Consultancy.
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Thomas Kaplan
Senior Valuations Consultant
Cirium Ascend Consultancy
The decade of the 2010s saw tremendous growth of the leased fleet size (~88% in total), but also the entrance of many new operating lessors, leading to fragmentation of the fleet. In 2010, two lessors, GECAS and ILFC accounted for nearly 40% of the leased fleet. By the end of the decade, eight lessors would share the 40%. The number of managers classified as operating lessors with at least one aircraft in service or stored increased from 143 to 186. 90% of the leased fleet went from being shared amongst 41 lessors to 63.
The pandemic put the brakes on lessor trading as aircraft values fell and later rising interest rates increased lessor cost of capital. With defaulting lessees and geopolitical shifts, the trend reversed towards more consolidation, at least on the level of the largest lessors. The chart below tracks consolidation of the lessor fleet. The difference between the green and black line shows the fragmentation and growth trend of the 2010’s. The red line, representing today’s fleet, is above the black line but the shift is mostly noticeable for the largest lessors. The largest consolidation that can be spotted from the chart intercepting the y-axis is AerCap’s 2021 acquisition of GECAS. However, for half a decade of trend, consolidation has not moved very quickly, particularly compared to the speed of change observed in the previous decade.
Lessor Fleet Distribution Over Time
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody Jets, Commercial usage, excluding unconfirmed lessors. Note: Avolon acquisition of Castlelake portfolio accounted for in February 2025 data.
The yellow line, which is barely visible due to its overlap with today’s fleet, represents the picture at the very start of 2024. The past 13 months had a large “consolidation” event in the Avolon acquisition of a 106 aircraft portfolio from Castlelake. While it is significant in rearranging the size rankings of the two lessors in question, it does not do much to change the landscape. DAE Capital’s planned acquisition of Nordic Aviation Capital is a very significant consolidation event, but mostly involving regional aircraft so does not affect this analysis which focuses on narrowbody and widebody jets.
New entrant activity continued at a slow pace to dampen the consolidation trend. IAT Leasing took out an advertisement at Dublin Airport to catch the eye of those flying in to attend the Airline Economics Growth Frontiers conference in January 2025. They now have nine aircraft on lease including three A330-200s. Notable new entrants from earlier in the decade which have managed to grow beyond a 40 aircraft portfolio include AviLease, SKY Leasing, Griffin Global Asset Management and Vmo Aircraft Leasing. Gaining scale has been challenging, however, with only Avilease breaching the 100-jet mark following its 2023 acquisition of Standard Chartered’s aircraft leasing business.
Lessor fleet distribution change since 2024 has been minimal:
| Number of lessors | 1-Jan-2024 | Feb-2025 |
| 35% of leased fleet | 6 | 6 |
| 50% of leased fleet | 11 | 12 |
| 90% of lease fleet | 62 | 61 |
| 100% of leased fleet | 191 | 190 |
Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer, Narrowbody and Widebody jets, Commercial usage, in-service/stored fleet, excluding unconfirmed lessors
Will the consolidation trend pick up again in 2025? Cirium reported in an interview that Stratos chief Gary Fitzgerald, who contributed to the consolidation trend in 2023 with the acquisition of Magi Partners, believes the industry would benefit from consolidation as some leasing platforms have underperformed. Carlyle Aviation Partners’ Robert Korn also suggested that the recent strength of the US dollar should make for a good exit opportunity for some lessors. Carlyle was a driver of consolidation as well with its 2021 ACMK acquisition. Economies of scale do exist for aircraft leasing to a certain extent, which should favour some consolidation. Perhaps the lessors with the lowest cost of funding will take the opportunity to grow their scale – if they find a lessor willing to sell. While there are good reasons for consolidation to occur, it remains to be seen if conditions will finally warm to allow it.
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