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Slow Start to Commercial Aircraft Deliveries in 2025
First quarter delivery totals for Airbus and Boeing suggest 2025 targets might be a challenge.
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Team Perspective
Rob Morris
Global Head of Consultancy
Cirium Ascend Consultancy
There continues to be much talk about commercial aircraft deficits. Cirium Ascend Consultancy has explained before that in reality these amount to a deficit of new aircraft caused by the inability of Airbus and Boeing to increase production as rapidly as they would like, for a multitude of reasons. Last year they delivered 766 and 348 aircraft respectively across their commercial jet programmes, including a handful of aircraft for non-commercial roles. For 2025 Airbus has stated a delivery guidance of 820. Boeing has been silent, but we have a working estimate of 610 units.
As the first quarter closed on Monday, we now have initial estimates for March, and hence first quarter, deliveries. Cirium’s fleet data indicates that Airbus delivered 69 aircraft in the month, including 18 A320s, 33 A321s, 10 A220s, two A330-900s and six A350-900s. Consequently, first quarter shipments total 134. Looking at data for the past 15 years (2010-2024), Airbus has historically averaged 20% of total annual deliveries in the first quarter. Hence, this cumulative 134 Q1 total suggests a 2025 annual total of 660, significantly short of the 820 target.
However, Airbus was clear in its February briefing that we should expect lower deliveries in the early part of the year due to a relative shortage of engine deliveries, particularly CFM Leap for the A320 family. There is some evidence of this through analysis of aircraft backlog and production progress. Cirium data indicates that Airbus currently has 43 A320 family aircraft which have flown but not yet been delivered, whilst further research suggests there are at least 70 which have been rolled out of the respective final assembly lines but which have not yet flown. These include 43 aircraft which Cirium data indicates will be powered by Leap engines when finally delivered.
Hence, Airbus has potential to increase delivery rates in the second quarter (and beyond) as they work through these aircraft. There are also signs of increasing A320 production pace again, with 53 first flights detected in March (compared to 42 in February and only 38 in January; as an aside there were also three on 1 April), perhaps headed back towards the average close to 60 seen in the final quarter of 2024. Since Airbus stated an expectation of 820 deliveries this year only a few weeks ago, it seems likely that this slow progress was already expected and at present there is no reason to doubt that number.
Over at Boeing, Cirium estimates 41 deliveries in March including 33 737 Max, four 787s and four 777-200LRFs, taking the Q1 total to 130. The US OEM has historically delivered 24.5% of annual deliveries in the first quarter and hence there is an indication of 530 total, again relatively short of our 610 expectation for the year. However, we know that Boeing is working through a ramp-up on the 737 line and first flight data indicates 27 aircraft built in March, up from an average of 23 in the first two months of the year and as few as 10 in November 2024. Expectations of achieving the FAA-imposed cap of 38 per month by mid-year seem reasonable.
Boeing’s deliveries are also being augmented by inventory aircraft. In 2025 to date almost 25% of 737 Max deliveries have been aircraft that flew more than 90 days prior to delivery. Although the pace of delivery of such aircraft seems to have slowed in March, with only four amongst the 33 total, there are still some 34 737-8s in inventory which seem likely to be delivered this year. If 737-7 deliveries could begin in 2025 (post-certification) then there are a further 28 potential deliveries there. The upside opportunity is completed with the 787 programme, where Cirium data indicates 25 aircraft flown prior to 2025 yet to be delivered (including 13 specifically for Lufthansa which are delayed by seat supply issues).
In summary, provisional first quarter delivery data indicates that both Airbus and Boeing face significant challenges if they are to achieve 2025’s delivery targets. However, there are clear data arguments to suggest that we should see volumes increase in the coming months. Therefore, it seems premature to be revising those targets downwards yet.
As a postscript, what about Comac? Following 13 C919 deliveries in 2024, we have seen suggestions of around 30 in 2025. We have also very recently seen reports of the three major Chinese airlines – China Eastern, Air China and China Southern – expecting 10, 12 and 10 C919 deliveries respectively this year. Yet in the first quarter Cirium’s data records only a single unit delivered to Comac Express. I bear this slow progress in mind each time I hear comments about Comac’s potential to break the duopoly. The challenge in Shanghai is clearly at least as great as those faced by Airbus and Boeing.
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