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The US Market Overview: Traffic
Airline passenger traffic in the US market has seen a robust recovery post-Covid and through 2023, with key segments such as US-Europe, US-Latin America and domestic US fully rebounding and surpassing capacity from the same month in 2019.
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Team Perspective
Yinan Qin
Senior Aviation Analyst
Cirium Ascend Consultancy
PART ONE OF THREE – READ PART TWO: AIRCRAFT ABS AND PART THREE: AIRLINES
US market traffic overview
Airline passenger traffic in the US market has seen a robust recovery post-Covid and through 2023, with key segments such as US-Europe, US-Latin America and domestic US fully rebounding and surpassing capacity from the same month in 2019. In contrast, the recovery of trans-Pacific routes remains sluggish with volume still significantly below pre-Covid levels as of today.
One factor contributing to this slow recovery is the heightened political tensions between US and China – one of the main markets in Asia contributing 31% of total flights in 2019. These tensions have created unfavorable market conditions, dampening travel demand between the two countries and perhaps making routes unprofitable for US carriers. According to the Cirium SRS Analyzer, the number of US-China direct flights original-destination (OD) pairs declined by 57.8% from 64 in 2019 to 27 in 2024. Meanwhile, the number of flights dropped from over 11,600 in 2019 to below 3,800 in 2024, marking a 67.4% decrease. It is reported that American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines requested another extension from the US Transportation Department (DOT) in September 2024 for unused flights frequencies on routes connecting China to avoid losing those routes.
Another factor to consider is that the US in-service twin-aisle fleet has hardly grown since 2019. Flights between the US and China require approximately two widebody aircraft just to service a single daily frequency.
Considering that US carriers have redeployed a lot of capacity formerly serving China to other markets in the last five years, and also retired some older aircraft during Covid, and considering slow deliveries of 787s and A350s, the US carriers wouldn’t have the necessary aircraft anytime soon to return to their full, pre-Covid China timetable even if they wanted to and the demand existed. In light of this, we do not expect US-China capacity to return to pre-Covid levels in the short-to-medium term.
US-based airlines fleet overview
The current passenger fleet operated within the US market has grown from just over 6,200 aircraft in September 2019 to almost 7,000 in September 2024, reflecting a 2.3% CAGR. Meanwhile, the stored fleet ratio has declined from a peak of 51.9% in April 2020 to 8.6% as of September 2024, albeit still being 2.8 percentage points higher than pre-Covid levels. Both single-aisle and twin-aisle fleets maintained a below-average storage rate while turboprops and regional jets experienced a more sluggish recovery primarily due to a shortage of pilots and flight crews. The rise in inactive single-aisle aircraft since early 2024 is attributed to the temporary grounding of 47 Boeing 737 Max 9s following the door plug incident in January 2024 and A320neo GTF engine issue, which has grounded a monthly average of 32 US-operated A320neos equipped with PW1100G engine over the past nine months, most of which are from Spirit’s fleet. This situation is expected to persist until at least 2026 when the engines can be inspected, and any necessary parts can be replaced.
Overall, the size of the current fleet in the American market is expected to continue growing, with 2,586 aircraft on order and 798 aircraft on option as of September 2024.
The growth will be at a slower pace due to a stagnant production ramp-up from major OEMs, stemming from supply chain challenges and labour strikes (particularly at Boeing). The ongoing GTF engine issue will further exacerbate the under-supplied market dynamic in the near-term. However, on a positive note, the constrained supply should continue to underpin lease rate strength.
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