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By Tim Li, Aviation Analyst at Cirium Ascend Consultancy

As we move into the second quarter of the year, the Cirium Fleets Analyzer database logged slightly below 450 new order commitments for the Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) sector since the beginning of this year, taking the total to slightly over 13,500. The AAM market is inching closer to some of its initial target dates for operation, including Volocopter vowing to begin operations during the Paris Olympics 2024. Some progress has been made in the first quarter, with EHang kickstarting its public sale of the E216-S after obtaining the world’s first type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), and other OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) obtaining production organization approvals (POAs) from their regulators, which further paves the way towards production of the designs. However, there is still no absolute certainty that these operations will be realised.

Data coverage Includes:

Market Grouping	Manufacturer	Type	Comment
eVTOL – UAV/UAS	BETA Technologies	ALIA-250
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	AMSL Aero	Vertiia	Newly added
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Aerofugia	AE200
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Archer Aviation	Midnight
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Ascendance Flight Technologies	Atea
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	AutoFlight	Prosperity 1
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	BETA Technologies	ALIA-250
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Crisalion Mobility	Integrity	Newly added
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	DuFour Aerospace	Aero3
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	EHang	EH216
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	EHang	VT-30
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Eve Air Mobility	Eve
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Horizon Aircraft	Cavorite X7	Newly added
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Jaunt Air Mobility	Journey
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Joby Aviation	S4
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Lilium GmbH	Lilium Jet
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Manta Aircraft	ANN2
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Odys Aviation	Odys eVTOL
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Overair Inc	Butterfly
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Plana	CopterPlane CP-01
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Sirius Aviation	Sirius Jet
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	SkyDrive	SD-05
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	TCab Tech	E20 eVTOL
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Vertical Aerospace Group Ltd	VX4
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Volocopter GmbH	VoloCity
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Volocopter GmbH	VoloConnect
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	Wisk Aero LLC	Cora
eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility	XTI Aircraft Company	TriFan 600
Business Electric – Multi Engine	Electra	Electra eSTOL
Business Electric – Multi Engine	Airflow	M200
Business Electric – Multi Engine	Bye Aerospace	eFlyer 800
Business Electric – Multi Engine	Electron	Electron 5
Business Electric – Multi Engine	Eviation	Alice
Business Electric – Single Engine	BETA Technologies	CX300
Business Electric – Single Engine	VoltAero	Cassio 330
Regional Electric – Small	Aura Aero	ERA
Regional Electric – Small	Heart Aerospace	ES-19	Programme cancelled, and revised to ES-30
Regional Electric – Small	Heart Aerospace	ES-30
Regional Electric – Small	Jekta	PHA-ZE 100
Regional Electric – Small	LYTE Aviation	LA-44 Skybus
Regional Electric – Small	Maeve Aerospace	Maeve 01	Programme cancelled, OEM revised to M80*

eVTOL – Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

The total number of order commitments captured by Cirium Fleets Analyzer for the eVTOL sector is now slightly above 10,300. EVE Air Mobility and Vertical Aerospace continue to stand out as the OEMs with the most order commitments, even though they did not record any new in the past nine months. These new commitments are predominantly from the Asia Pacific region and are lacking familiar names like lessors that previously logged.

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Sustaining Financing: A Vital Component for Industry Growth

According to Cirium data, there has been a decrease in the rate of growth of order commitments. In the past six months, the net growth of total commitments amounted to just slightly below 600 units, with around 80% of activity from the Asia Pacific region. Overall, these order commitments observed represents a decline of over 50% compared to the previous six-month period. However, during this stage in the development cycle, a slowdown in the rate of orders is not unexpected.

As per Cirium’s Fleets Analyzer database, there are currently more than 20 designs registered that have received order commitments, with new entrants continuing to emerge. These factors indicate that enthusiasm towards the AAM market has not yet started to fade.

An order commitment generally means payment is committed to be made in the future and is often subject to agreed terms and conditions. An example of such a condition is meeting development timelines. While commitments can increase the confidence of investors and eventually translate into payments, they are often not an immediate source of cashflow for the OEM. Product development, particularly of such pioneering technology, is both lengthy and costly. To achieve any milestones set out to fulfil promises and thereby the ability to realise the AAM vision, the OEMs will continue to require new financing, either from their parent companies, governments or existing/new investors.

A decrease in direct financing would have significant implications for the future development of the industry. In order to ensure continued support for product development and marketing efforts, consolidation could be something to watch for in the near to medium-term future.

Business Electric – Multi Engine

The total tally of order commitments for the electric business aircraft sector now stands over 3,200, marking an increase of approximately 500 commitments in the last six months. The Dallas-based JSX Airlines accounts for over 330 of them, spreading across types including Aura Aero’s ERA, Electra’s eSTOL, and Heart Aerospace’s ES-30. Electra’s eSTOL also received an additional commitment from US-based regional aircraft operators Surf Air (90), as well as from India’s Jet Set Go (50).

*The European startup Maeve Aerospace has revised its strategy and introduced a new concept, an 80-seater hybrid-electric aircraft dubbed the M80. This means that the original M01 44-seater is now on hold. It remains uncertain whether the initial orders will be transferred.

Most designs for this larger gauge concepts have now diverted from the vision of the aircraft being fully powered by electricity alone, and are instead based on a hybrid concept.

The Cirium Ascend Consultancy AAM team will continue to provide valuable insight to the market. We would be pleased to hear any thoughts, comments or feedback you may have, so do not hesitate to contact us for more information.

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