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By Michael Graham, Valuations manager at Ascend by Cirium
In April 2021, Ascend by Cirium launched the Commercial Aircraft Market Sentiment Index (CAMSI). The monthly Index tracks market sentiment and trends of values and lease rates through a survey of key market stakeholders, including lessors, banks, OEMs, part-out shops, airlines and brokers.
Within CAMSI, we utilize a NPS Index methodology – calculated as the number of respondents replying ’too high’ or ‘trending up’ minus those replying ‘too low’ or ‘trending down’, divided by the total sample response to that question. Scores in the 40% to -40% range broadly indicate stability, those below -40% can be considered to indicate a negative sentiment and those above 40% indicate a positive sentiment.
After a short break in December, CAMSI returned in January and we were keen to know if the generally positive momentum in sentiment, seen towards the end of 2021, would be carried through to the new year. In short, the answer is yes. For the first time since the inception of CAMSI, Market Value trend opinion for all single-aisles, both new and old, showed positive NPS scores. That said, new-generation aircraft continue to power ahead of their older stablemates. For example, the new-build Boeing 737 Max-8 leads the 2012-build 737-800 (winglets) by around 30 percentage points in terms of NPS score for value trends. A similar divide can be seen within the Airbus A320 family, where a new-build A320neo enjoys a substantial lead over its 2012-build A320ceo Sharklets predecessor.
Looking at twin-aisles, while the picture was much less positive than for single-aisles, a similar divide between new and old can be seen. Whereas the NPS scores for 10-year-old vintages of the Airbus A330-300 and Boeing 777-300ER remain firmly in negative territory, scores for new-build Boeing 787-9 and Airbus A350-900 aircraft are now within touching distance of being positive, with NPS scores -3% and -6% respectively. In many ways, these scores are not surprising given that throughout the pandemic, new-generation twin-aisles have generally enjoyed higher utilization and lower storage rates than older types, according to Cirium Fleets Analyser and Tracked Utilisation. Whether the currant hiatus in Boeing 787 deliveries is having a significant effect on market value sentiment is unclear.
In the world of macroeconomics, inflation has been dominating the headlines, with the U.S. Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reaching levels not seen since Ronald Reagan’s first term in the White House. Commercial Aviation has not been immune from higher inflation; in the form of more expensive jet fuel and upward pressure on wage bills. However, it is the potential effect of inflation on aircraft values which is of greatest interest to us. Consequently, for CAMSI’s first “bonus question” of 2022, we asked respondents if they thought higher U.S. CPI will influence global aircraft values in the immediate future.
The vast majority (60%) of respondents thought that values would remain stable in nominal terms, effectively decreasing in real terms.
This was followed by 25% who thought that values would increase, but more slowly than U.S. CPI, with 9% who thought that values would increase in-line with CPI. 6% of those surveyed were of the view that values would decrease further, even in nominal terms. Only time will tell whether the majority are correct, but one thing which is clear is that inflation is likely to be a key theme with regards to aircraft values this year.
We are always looking for further respondents to reflect all aspects of the market, who can then benefit from receiving the full set of results (above is only a top line summary). The CAMSI survey takes only 3 minutes to complete, yet provides respondents with the most comprehensive picture of the aircraft value market trends available. If you would like to participate, please contact michael.graham@cirium.com. Participants will receive a complete and detailed analysis of the survey results, with ten or more graphics included.
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