Cirium has been transforming its business over the past decade with acquisitions, a rebrand, and investment in data and technology. As part of this, the consultancy services have advanced, with an increase in ISTAT certified appraisers, new and rising talent and full access to Cirium’s extensive datalake—The Cirium Core—which helps to elevate the analyses produced by the team.
Max will join the seven-time Aviation 100 Appraiser of the Year Award winners, Ascend by Cirium, as a Senior Consultant.
What does this mean for the market?
Max Kingsley-Jones said, “I’m delighted to be joining the Ascend by Cirium team and will focus on the delivery of client projects and content across the consultancy portfolio. My prior roles in commercial aviation, means I bring varied experience from working closely with airlines, aerospace and leasing companies and the wider aviation finance sector.
I was involved in the creation of what was formerly known as Airclaims—the predecessor of Ascend by Cirium—in regard to desktop and online valuation services. So, I will also draw on that experience and knowledge to help the market, especially as the industry is now looking to recover following the impact of COVID-19.”
Do you see an increased need for consultancy given the impact that the pandemic has had on aviation?
“Absolutely, the beauty of what the Ascend by Cirium team does is marry Cirium’s historical and current data with deep analyses of the market and years of industry expertise. This isn’t the first time the team have worked through a crisis, for example they supported the industry through the impact 9/11 had, as well as SARS.
Airlines survived previous crises so we expect that here too, but our consultancy will enable that and speed it up. We view our work as critical as aviation is an essential service globally, with an important role in the economy. It activates travel and tourism which is an industry worth US$10 trillion globally. And, is an industry that drives so many aspects of business and leisure economy.”
What’s your opinion on the next year in aviation?
“It’s still hard to outline and forecast for this year and next as the COVID-19 pandemic stressed the industry beyond anything we could have imagined. What we can look at are the predicted actions we may see the airlines take, for example starting with the fleet.
While some fleets are beginning to be reactivated, many thousands of airliners remain stored following the travel restrictions that were imposed on the industry. We will see a huge change in the aircraft types in service.
The Ascend by Cirium team predicts that the ‘four-engined widebody jets’ will be the most affected such as the 747 being at the end of its line and the A380-800 being threatened. Mid-life twin aisle aircraft such as the A330, Boeing 767 and 777-300ER are also threatened as domestic routes pick up first with single-aisle aircraft.
Not all single-aisle aircraft though may return, as mid-life single aisles—in the nine-to-16-year-old age group—may also be threatened.
The uncertainty around fleet revival is reflected in near-term deliveries. The rate at which these return highly depends on the carriers’ need to restore capacity and their ability to secure financing. The view is that airlines will continue with fleet replacement programs and avoid retaining older aircraft as they restore the capacity, of course finance permitting.
While aircraft deliveries continue, they have slowed, for example Cirium’s data shows that Airbus and Boeing monthly deliveries of commercial aircraft dropped to just 18 units in April before rising to 25 in May, 43 in June and 53 in July. Remembering that Airbus and Boeing had originally been planning to deliver close to 120 single-aisle aircraft between them on a monthly basis this year, the scale of the impact is evident.
This lower rate of deliveries is expected to continue into 2021 as airline demand remains weak.
It is uncertain still how the airlines will manage the recovery in return of aircraft, deliveries and supply chain, the outlook for 2021 is more likely to emerge later this year. Delving into the data—historical and current—will enable a more informed understanding of what’s to come.”
Max joins Cirium from FlightGlobal where he was Executive Director of Content and held numerous roles leading aviation news teams. He brings years of connections, industry knowledge and content expertise he developed from former roles into his new consultancy-focused role.
To contact the Ascend by Cirium team – click here.
For more industry insights, please visit our Thought Cloud here.
